How Cash Flow Forecasting Works
Understanding the statistical model behind MoniePilot 30, 60, and 90-day cash flow projections.
The baseline model
MoniePilot calculates a 28-day moving average of your daily net cash flow (income minus expenses). This baseline represents your typical daily cash generation or burn rate.
Seasonality adjustment
If a strong day-of-week pattern is detected (for example, higher sales on weekends), the forecast adjusts accordingly. This uses the last 56 days of transaction data to identify the pattern.
Confidence bands
The shaded area around the forecast line shows the uncertainty range, calculated as plus or minus 1.5 standard deviations of past prediction errors. The band widens over time because estimates further out are naturally less certain.
Risk flags
If the lower confidence band crosses zero within 30, 60, or 90 days, MoniePilot flags that period at risk. This means there is a realistic scenario where your cash could run out — even if the central forecast stays positive.
Minimum data required
The forecast needs at least 28 days of transaction history to be meaningful. With less data, projections will be available but confidence bands will be very wide. Keep transactions up to date in POS, Expenses, and Invoices for the most accurate forecast.
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